The answer is: by focusing
Fossil fuel shortage will force large scale transition from petrol cars sooner than in 10 years. Biofuel supply will be insufficient to prolong era of combustion engines.
Two dominant technologies
1. Plug in electric cars model, batteries are integrated into auto chassis, recharged by electric outlets.
2. Swappable battery model. Batteries are owned and managed by battery operators.
Cars are sold without batteries and charging equipment.
Batteries are recharged and swapped by dealers, at gasoline stations and other highway service providers.
One of them will dominate in future. We cannot afford both running parallel.
If integrated car batteries were recharged by electricity outlets, their outright amount would become prohibitive, causing the system to grind to halt. Is there enough spare space in congested cities for new recharging pods?
Even electricity wiring would become a huge effort, since each of them must be connected to electricity grid, safely.
Swappable battery model is the only realistic choice.
Predictable transition path from oil to electricity motoring energy
New business opportunities for existing enterprises
Maximum utilization of existing battery technologies
Has most rapid positive impact on climate change
Steers clear of dependency on too limited component providers
Encourages distributed clean energy production
Speeds adoption by reducing electric car prices for consumers
Consumers avoid risk of investing in battery technology, which may turn obsolete
Provides platform for allocating expenses needed for traffic infrastructure
Lithium dependency
Technical requirements for swappable batteries are much lower than those used in plug in cars.
Recharging of spare batteries can be done during off peak hours.
Their capacity need not not be maximized, assuming that they can be swapped instead of recharging.
Because more rudimentary battery technologies can be used, dependency on few critical components can be avoided.
Battery swap stations (or their subcontractors) can recharge batteries also by methods, which are not available e for plug ins. For example, zinc-air batteries, which can be recharged only by specialized utilities, have kwh/weight ratio twice that of lithium-ion. They are also cheaper to produce.
Bolivia has 40% of known lithium deposits. When such countries learn that the component for which they are a dominant supplier, will not become critical in transition to electric vehicles, they certainly will be more willing to negotiate than dictate. United States will certainly not support introduction of such technology, which makes them dependent on a sole supplier.
Predictable infrastructure investments
Plug in model has deceptively low threshold infrastructure requirements, as they can be plugged in any electricity outlet.
After 10% or so cars were run by plug in electricity, margin cost of deploying additional recharge spots and and related payment systems will rise like a wall. This is bound to happen, when motorists, who don't have access a private electricity plug, do enter in.
Think about already congested cities. They don't have enough parking space even for their current vehicles.
Can they put aside additional space for hundreds of thousands new recharging pods?
Battery swap model requires a critical mass of fast swap stations. They can be deployed on top of existing road service network, like gasoline stations. When spare battery recharging is committed to road-side entrepreneurs, it will become a new service industry for them, instead of becoming new burden for already indebted cities.
Gas station owner is more willing to deploy a swap unit, compared to a city planner, who should start ploughing electric wires into ground needed for recharge pods.
Consumers decide, eventually
Most prohibitive argument against electric car adoption is the amount of uncertainty, which a motorist feels he/she starts a ride: whether or not battery charge will last for all there and back rides.
Battery swapping stations lift this uncertainty. Swapping can become more quick than gasoline refueling. If a motorist has prepaid electricity account,she/he can replenish car energy even without leaving the car.
Tax incentives without consuming other tax payers money
When cars are sold without batteries and charging equipment, their price will become lucrative against regular and hybrid cars. Sooner than later, when electric cars will be pervasive, it becomes necessary compensate for shrinking gasoline tax revenues. Swap battery model offers ready environment for including gasoline tax equivalent into sold electricity. Anyway, highway network must financed somehow, without regard of motoring energy.
Plug in model forces that tax has to be included entirely in car price. Because battery is included in car price also, plug in car will become much more expensive for consumers than cars without batteries. Tax allocation will become unjust, because motorist have widely different driving needs. Battery swap model allocates tax charge on same righteous basis as current gasoline tax does, by basis of energy consumption.
Save the world for future taxpayers
Public debt is nothing but postponed tax, to the shoulders of subsequent generations. Is it acceptable, that they have to repay our debts in a world, which has exhausted the most important energy source, crude oil. Plus they have to encounter climate deterioration, which is bound to be much worse than we dare to believe. And irrevocable, as recent ocean studies have revealed.
Fossile oil is and will stay ultimately important component for durable products. When oil is eventually depleted, practically all industries will face a ground breaking restructuring. Crude oil is all too valuable to be burned.
Circumvent single manufacturer lock-in
Some of the auto makers have already patented their innovations in battery cell technology, and others are bound to follow the suit. If battery is separated functionally from entity “auto”, car batteries will be developed and manufactured by separate specialized companies. They have natural interest to adapt their products with as many auto maker as possible.
No lock-in in single battery technology
These two technical factors fare better in battery swap model, over built-in pluggable model:
1. Batteries can be cheaper and less effective, because a motorist can trust that he can get a replacement battery quickly enough.
2. Batteries can hold more energy in same weight, when they can be recharged in special utilities.
Battery industry can rely on a portfolio of underlying technologies and related services.
Business opportunities become open for smaller companies, because local vendors can provide energy and highway services.
Motoring Operating System
Even my 10 ears old car has some kind of operating system.
Unfortunately, it has started to unlock car doors randomly. My technician estimated that fixing the software will cost 30% of car's mark-to-market value.
As soon as batteries are swapped regularly, swap station equipment can verity and update car monitoring systems also. Autos are having more and more intelligence aboard which assists driving in navigation et al. Such systems are independent of car platform. Battery swap stations offer an excellent platform for distributing such software, as updates and new products.
Assured recycling
Car owner is responsible for recycling the built in battery. Battery can become obsolete far sooner than it deteriorates technically. When a consumer buys a new car, 20-40% of its price is exposed to such a sudden fall in value. In battery swap model, a battery operator carries risks incurred in battery technology. Operators can optimize recycling and do it in bulk.
Economic stimulus
Consensus among economy pundits says that government stimulus must be strong, but must not last long. Japan is used as a warning example. Infrastructure investments have been considered useless, because they were dispersed over two decades. Nothing but a huge national debt was achieved by that.
Battery swap model assumes critical mass of infrastructure investments, from the start. It can be mostly be financed by private money. Total cost of infrastructure investment can be calculated on regional level in advance.
In this issue governments can provide stimulus also without using money. By actively promoting standardization.
Clean energy by new businesses
When spare batteries are recharged in utilities, they can use cheaper off peak electricity.
They can also use locally produced energy, be it from wind, waste burning or solar. For example, some battery cell types can be recharged by thermal energy only, which would suit well for waste burning utilities.
Where are the swappable battery cars?
We can rest assured: auto makers will manufacture whatever consumers want to pay for.
Secondly, they are facing a massive restructuring, if they want stay in businesses. One of the biggest is already committed to producing swappable battery cars within a couple of years. It is not for the benefit of us that one manufacturer will be able to decide about standards and possible induce a premature lock-in.
IT bubble – Mortgage bubble – Electric car bubble
Bubble economy is based on assumption, that some revolutionary innovation is imminent,
which brings miraculous advantages. Miraculous battery innovations keep on emerging, even though elementary knowledge about electricity proves that miracles are miracles.
Past bubbles have passed assets into other, more lucky hands only, but climate worsening pass time from all our hands.
An electricity car which shoots two passengers 0 – 100 km/h in four seconds, wins the loudest applauses in car shows. Does it sound like a bubble?
A battery swap network which assures our rides like petrol stations have done a century already, sounds dull, requires initial effort, but it can do the job right now.
Timing is perfect
Battery swap network has be built in a rush, a bit like switching from left to right lane traffic.
Because of current economy meltdown, manufacturing capacity is far from in short supply.
Planned industry subsidies are not focused, but dispensed evenly or worse, on political grounds.
What can be taken for granted, some kind of traffic energy infrastructure has to be built anyway.
Whether it mimics current and builds on top it, or will have totally new outlook.
All of them can not be set up parallel, but more importantly, we cannot afford big dud investments.
In developing countries only, more than million new cars appear on the roads, in each month. They will be fueled by fossile petrols. Unfortunately, before better part of those cars should retire, exhaustion of gasoline will force to decommission most of them prematurely.
Each new car owner raises the threshold for adopting electric car model. In that situation, the fastest path is the only choice. The fastest path is that one whose economical and technical requirements can be calculated in advance.
Not that which relies on a miraculous innovation in future. It will stay in future, for too long.